The tragedy of the commons is the concept that if there is unfettered access to a finite, valuable resource, it will be overused and may end up losing its value altogether.

A recent report by the Mackinac Center for Public Policy explains why electricity consumers and policymakers should be concerned about their electricity becoming more unreliable in the future. It analyzes the electricity plans of the large, investor-owned utilities in seven Great Lakes states: Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, Illinois and Pennsylvania. Many states and utilities are ignoring the warnings from grid operators and forging ahead with unworkable net-zero plans.

The main element of net-zero plans is to build massive amounts of new wind and solar generation. Despite these additions, MISO (Midcontinent Independent System Operator) expects overall grid capacity to decrease. That’s because states and utilities are simultaneously closing coal plants and some natural gas and nuclear facilities. How much electricity wind and solar generate, however, depends on the weather, so reliability will suffer.

The problem is compounded by the fact that most states are moving in the same direction. When Michigan’s utilities find that they do not have enough supply to meet demand, they will be unable to rely on buying surplus from neighboring states because those states will likely be in the same boat. Hastily closing reliable electricity generators and replacing them with weather-dependent wind and solar risks shorting the Great Lakes grid.

How much electricity wind and solar generate depends on uncontrollable factors, like the weather and time of day. This makes them undependable. Wind and solar can vary from producing at full capacity when weather conditions are ideal to less than 1% of capacity under the worst conditions.

Wind and solar cannot be relied on as a one-for-one replacement of existing generation sources, like coal, natural gas and nuclear. If the grid relies on forms of generation that are uncontrollable and unreliable, it must also maintain backup sources that are controllable and reliable. Because wind and solar production can fall to near zero at times, utilities may need to maintain duplicative generation capacity.

Colorado State leaders need to wake up. Our residents should not be endangered by pursuing net zero. Ayn Rand once said, “You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.”

Bill Rutledge
Steamboat Springs