Mid-March heat could accelerate snowmelt in Colorado’s mountains, meteorologists say

Unseasonably warm weather forecast for Colorado’s mountain towns next week could bring temperatures of up to 25 degrees above normal

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Weather has been warm in Summit County, as it was during the annual Brewski event in Frisco on March 7, and that trend is expected to continue throughout the week.
Curtis DeVore/Town of Frisco

Colorado’s mountain towns are poised to see temperatures of up to 25 degrees higher than normal next week as meteorologists warn of destructive impacts to the state’s historically low snowpack.

Leading up to several days of dry weather, one more storm on Saturday is expected to bring around 2-6 inches of snow, strong winds and colder temperatures to the northern mountains. According to OpenSnow, temperatures could be in the perfect zone for snowflake formation, though a potential downside is that colder and drier air sweeping behind the storm could limit snow accumulations.

“Whatever (snow) we do get over the weekend is not really going to add too much to the already low snowpack numbers,” National Weather Service Meteorologist Matthew Aleksa said.



Although next week is forecast to begin with some clouds and leftover flakes from the weekend storm, the Western Slope region will quickly transition into hot and dry weather by Tuesday, March 17.

“Next week we have a ridge of high pressure moving in, so it’s going to be warming up quite significantly,” Aleksa said.



These higher temperatures, which could climb into the 50s for some mountains and into the 60s and 70s for some resort towns by the end of the week — including Steamboat Springs, Vail, Breckenridge and Aspen — are expected to last through Friday at the least. In Glenwood Springs, temperatures could reach highs in the low 80s by Friday, Aleksa said.

“We should be 20-25 degrees cooler than that on average for this time of year,” Aleksa said, adding that Western Slope towns haven’t seen temperatures that high for March since 2017.

“It looks like we will have a good chance of being near breaking some record highs with this stretch of warm days this next week,” he continued.

Temperatures in some Colorado mountain towns could reach highs in the 60s and 70s by the end of the week, according to the National Weather Service.
OpenSnow/Courtesy graphic

In a Wednesday report, OpenSnow Meteorologist Sam Collentine said the upcoming dry temperatures are “extremely warm for mid-March,” especially for mountains in the 10,000 to 11,000 foot range.

On top of disturbing ecosystems and causing plants to bloom prematurely, warm temperatures during the winter could also cause significant damage to the region’s already low snowpack, especially at the lower elevations and on non-north-facing slopes.

“Temperatures this warm can lead to accelerated snowmelt, so it can speed up that process,” Aleksa said. “As far as what kind of impact that will have, it’s still to be determined. But at the very least, we could see that the snow melts a bit quicker than it would typically come off at this time of year.”

This winter’s lack of snow is the most severe since the snowpack telemetry began tracking data in the 1980s, with less than 30 days to go until the median peak for Colorado’s snowpack.

“We’re toying with the lowest ever snowpack for the past 30 years, and with a mostly dry forecast for the next two weeks, this year’s black line will likely flatline, and we’ll be solidly in the lowest position,” OpenSnow Founding Meteorologist Joel Gratz wrote in a snow report.

With a mostly dry forecast for the next two weeks, OpenSnow Founding Meteorologist Joel Gratz says the mid-March heat could push Colorado’s snowpack to a record-low position.
Colorado Snow Survey Products/Courtesy

With spring break slated to begin next week for several school districts across the state, several resort destinations have reported lower bookings as subpar snowfall conditions push families to set their sights elsewhere for vacation.

Looking further ahead, cooler temperatures could return during the week of March 23, with potential changes for snow. Beyond that, however, April and May are showing signs of sticking with above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in Colorado, according to the Climate Prediction Center’s three-month outlook.

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