Paul Bonnifield: Threat of war in the Middle East is real
The threat of war in the Middle East scares the heck out of me, and I’m certain I’m not alone. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the region is “on the edge of collapse as a single blunder can fuel a big fire.” Open warfare in the Persian Gulf will engulf the entire Middle East and North Africa. Russia’s national interest in Iran and Syria will force their involvement. China and Europe will be drawn into the fight.
Israel’s territorial claim is based on the biblical story of Jews returning to the promised land. Iran, with a different point of view, supports Palestinians with guns and money. Saudi Arabia and Iran have strongly different views of how to worship Allah. The result is a tragic three-sided religious war.
The United States believes with guns, sanctions and money it is possible to solve the differences. All the ingredients are present to start World War III — a war fought with ICBMs.
A disastrous blunder can occur anywhere in the region. On Sept. 21, The Jerusalem Post reported Lebanon filed with the U.N. Security Council 480 violations of Security Council Resolution 1701 in a two-month period. At least two violations were armed drone attacks.
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In July, Israel’s drones attack Iranian troops serving in the Iraq Army. Iraq filed with the U.N. Israel has attack many sites in Syria. Any future action that goes badly can go really bad.
Israel intends to build new settlements in Palestinian-controlled areas. The action is full of real danger. The war in Yemen involving Arabia can cause a terrible war. The Warsaw Peace and Security Conference is more about conducting war than finding peace.
We are seeing the increase in the size and frequency of acts of violence, first one side then the other responds. No doubt Iran will fight if attacked. Events are becoming uncontrollable.
Before starting open warfare against Iran remember the United States has actively been involved in Middle East wars since the Gulf War of 1990 (29 years). We have won all the wars but have never really won any. A war with Iran will be long, bloody and without a real victory. The nations involved may blunder into World War III. Then, it won’t make any difference who is right or wrong.
Thank you very much,
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