Letter: Is COVID-19 the unprecedented contagion originally predicted? | SteamboatToday.com

Letter: Is COVID-19 the unprecedented contagion originally predicted?

Given the original information about the danger of COVID-19 that was released by the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, government’s initial reaction may be understandable. 

The recommendations by the WHO and the CDC were based on a computer model developed by Imperial College of London epidemiologist Neil Ferguson. Professor Ferguson’s computer model predicted 500,000 deaths in the United Kingdom and 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. This forecast was assuming social distancing and a global economic shutdown.  

Rather than depending on academic computer modeling, we now have the advantage of having real information. Actual data now available proves that Ferguson’s mortality forecast was overstated by nearly 100%. Yet, most state and local government public health orders remain in place as if the original Ferguson academic computer model was correct.

If COVID-19 was the historic unprecedented contagion originally predicted and still being promoted in the traditional media, this would be reflected in the total death count from all causes tracked by the CDC. The CDC isn’t known for its accuracy, but there is no bias or opinion when tabulating the total annual death count from all causes. 

Data from the CDC’s own website proves that the 2019-20 total death count is not statistically different from all prior years since the CDC has been tracking total mortality. Is COVID-19 the unprecedented contagion initially feared? Not according to the CDC’s own total mortality tally. 

Participate in The Longevity Project

The Longevity Project is an annual campaign to help educate readers about what it takes to live a long, fulfilling life in our valley. This year Kevin shares his story of hope and celebration of life with his presentation Cracked, Not Broken as we explore the critical and relevant topic of mental health.

Information supporting these statements is public record available at the CDC’s website as well as here: researchgate.net/publication/341832637_All-cause_mortality_during_COVID-19_No_plague_and_a_likely_signature_of_mass_homicide_by_government_response.

Joe Meglen
Steamboat Springs

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