Long-range forecasts predict Colorado will see “normal” wildfire risk this year for much of the Western Slope, but the common refrain when it comes to predicting large-scale wildfire events is that it’s not a matter of if, but when.

“There are not a lot of people in this community who wouldn’t even bat an eye when I say we’re expecting longer fire seasons, more fire starts, and more extreme wildfire growth,” said Birch Barron, director of emergency management in Eagle County, at an event with Colorado Sen. John Hickenlooper in Eagle in April to discuss public lands in the region. “Not only that, we’re expecting it to affect our community as well.”    

Across most of Colorado, there is expected to be “normal fire potential” through August, according to the 2025 wildfire outlook and preparedness plan from Colorado’s Division of Fire Prevention and Control. The exception is in southwest Colorado, where persisting drought conditions — following and continuing warmer and drier weather patterns — put the region in “above normal” risk of wildfires until late July brings monsoon moisture. 
As of May, Northwest Colorado will see “normal significant fire potential” through August based on outlooks from the National Interagency Fire Center. The potential is driven by current and forecasted drought conditions, precipitation, temperatures and the climate impact on wildfire fuels.

In these forecasts, “normal” is based on the trend for the past three years. However, the precariousness of climate conditions has communities within the wildland-urban interface readying for anything. 

“Even in an average year, Colorado can experience over 6,000 wildland fires burning over 150,000 acres,” according to the state report. 

“From my standpoint, it’s kind of hard to know what normal is anymore; normal keeps changing,” said Chuck Cerasoli, chief of the Steamboat Springs Area Fire Prevention District. “We’re all kind of bracing for a little bit more active wildfire summer and season.”

Hugh Fairfield-Smith — fire management officer for Eagle Valley Wildland, a division of the Eagle River Fire Protection District — said this year is likely to be a “pretty tough wildfire season.” 

Brandon McBride, a wildfire mitigation specialist with the wildland division of Summit Fire and EMS, added that these predictions are often built on the forest environment but leave out one significant risk component. 

“The real issue can be the built environment,” McBride said. “So there may not be a huge wildfire risk, but it depends on where the fires start.” 

In 2023, the National Interagency Fire Center reported that human-caused fires accounted for 88% of wildfires in the previous 10 years. 

Wildfires are getting bigger   

The state of Colorado’s 2025 wildfire plan depicts a “growing wildfire problem” in the state, punctuated by the fact that the 20 largest wildfires in state history have all occurred since 2001. The three largest wildfires all took place in 2020. Fifteen of these 20 events have occurred since 2012, and nine of them since 2018. 

Cerasoli speculated that the trend follows climate change and increasingly extreme weather patterns. 

“When we look at some of the things that have happened locally that were out of the ordinary, it seems like it was because the winds were more than what we’re used to, where the fire behavior changed a little bit because of a dramatic change in the weather pattern,” he said. “We hear, at least in the fire service on these major fires, ‘We’ve never seen fire behavior like this before.’ It seems to me like that’s based on the fact that we haven’t really seen weather patterns like we are seeing these days.” 

Drought conditions and warmer temperatures aren’t the only factors, however. 

“Yes, (wildfires are) hotter. Yes, they’re burning faster. Yes, they’re having more of an impact. But that is coupled with how many people are now moving to the mountains and how far we’re pushing homes into the wildland urban interface,” Fairfield Smith said. 

The report also points a finger at declining forest health. 

“It’s more fuel and more starts,” McBride said. “It also has to do with forest health and forest density. Historically, our forests in the west from the Rockies to the Pacific Ocean were far less dense than they are. And they’re pretty thick right now, so we have a lot more available fuel than we used to.”

The Colorado State Forest Service’s 2024 forest health report indicated that hotter, drier conditions have continued to stress forests and make them vulnerable to insects and disease. In the northwest, native bark beetles continue to cause the most damage.  

“There’s a lot that nature takes care of itself,” McBride said. “Beetles will move in and start to decimate tree populations… so as the population of the beetles climbs, the population of dead trees climbs, then the availability of dead fuel for fires climbs, and you’ll get increased fire activity in that area.”

How the climate could change wildfire risk 

While the region is not in critical fire danger based on these outlooks, this can change quickly due to a myriad of factors, Fairfield Smith said. 

“That could change due to the lack of moisture, due to how warm it’s been, due to how windy it’s been — the wind is definitely a pretty critical factor in drying things out,” he said. 

In April, three red flag warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in the region — something that Fairfield Smith said hasn’t happened for around five years. 

“That’s concerning, that’s a pretty telltale sign of how dry things are and where the moisture levels are,” he added. 

As of May 15, the National Weather Service’s three-month forecasts for temperature and precipitation predict hotter conditions for northwest Colorado from June to August. The outlook predicts the region may receive below-normal precipitation, while other portions have an equal chance of being drier or wetter. 

Following the warmer, drier spring, seeing a continuation of these patterns points toward  “decent fire growth or potential,” Fairfield Smith said. 

As the spring progressed, drought conditions developed in much of northwest Colorado. The Thursday drought monitor for Colorado put most northwest counties somewhere between abnormally dry to severe drought conditions in some areas. As of May 15, the national drought monitor forecasts drought conditions will persist across the region through Aug. 31. 

In Colorado, and the Western Slope specifically, snowpack is a major factor in wildfire risk and fuels moisture. 

For much of the winter, northwest Colorado sat around normal snowpack, but warmer temperatures and an early melt this spring caused snowpack to drop well below the 30-year median. As of May 15, statewide snowpack sat at 46% of this median, according to the National Resources Conservation Service. 

Russ Schumacher, Colorado’s state climatologist, wrote in a May 15 blog that the mountain snowpack and water supply “has gone from bad to worse in the last few weeks.”

“The lack of new snow and the extended warmth and sunshine has led to a rapid decline in snowpack in the northern and central mountains,” Schumacher wrote. “The drought situation this year is not

looking quite as bad as 2002, 2012, or 2018, which were all extremely active wildfire years — but it’s at least in the same conversation. A hot and dry June would increase the wildfire risk, as mid-late June is when we saw big wildfires in these years. But if the monsoon is active, that can help to keep the fire season shorter.”

It’s a little too early to know exactly what monsoon season will bring, he noted.